Research & Opinion

Published Research Papers


THE 5G CONUNDRUM AMID GEOPOLITICS AND SECURITY IN EUROPE

Corina Lozovan

CIEP Working Paper. (Apr 2021)

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Abstract: The 5G network is the latest generation of wireless technology, representing an upgrade in the digital revolution. Although it is supposed to bring tremendous benefits for both enterprises and consumers, it has started to be perceived as a critical infrastructure, becoming one of the most significant fields of competition among global powers. Hence, 5G should be seen in the context of a more geopolitical world order caused by the rise of China as a global technology leader. With a focus primarily on Europe and its 5G implementation process, this paper aims to understand the core stakes in the 5G debate.

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    The first part of the paper focuses on the 5G divergent strategy on Huawei in a fragmented Europe. The current debate on 5G will determine Europe’s alliance with the United States and its relation with China. The second part of the paper examines the 5G implementation process in Portugal, a member of the European Union still cooperating with Huawei. The last part of the paper considers the geopolitical and security implications of having a 5G network dominated by Huawei.

     


    THE EU’S (LEADING) ROLE IN OPPOSING CHINA’S THREAT TO THE LIBERAL INTERNATIONAL ORDER

    Luís Leal de Faria

    CIEP Working Paper. (Feb 2021)

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    Abstract: At a time when China increasingly seems eager to become a hegemonic power through authoritarian means, this paper assesses whether EU’s unity and economic strength could be effective in limiting the corrosive effects of China’s sharp power in the preservation of a liberal world order. For this purpose, we first make a comparison between EU and China’s economies, namely through a comparative assessment of quantitative data regarding the components of trade and investment. Then, we explore how these economic links may also include a projection of sharp power by China, mostly visible through human rights violations, breaches of rule of law, unfair competition, the theft of technology secrets, as well as the risk of undermining the very own integrity of the European project.

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    Having this in mind, we then reflect on the limits of doing business with China, trying to understand as to what extent the two distinct political and economic models are compatible with the preservation of a liberal order open to free and fair economic exchanges. In the end, while concluding that the Chinese model is increasingly threatening a stable international order, we also argue that the EU has a considerable economic deterrence power to push China into respecting global defined rules and arrangements. While considering that the US’s leadership has reached to a crisis, we argue that the EU (if united) has the opportunity, the economic capacity and even the duty to establish itself as the main promoter of what must remain a rules-based liberal international order.

     


    ASSESSING CHINA AND ANGOLA RELATIONS: THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE ‘ANGOLA MODEL’ OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Pamela Machado

    CIEP Working Paper. (Jan 2021).

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    Abstract: The increasingly close relationship between China and Africa has been extensively discussed in the international media as well as within the academic sphere: African countries play a key role in China’s multi-billion project ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) because the continent represents an important market opportunity for China to expand businesses and increase exports; on the receiving end, African leaders have been eager to take advantage of loans and credit lines offered by Beijing in order to spur economic development at home. Even though the BRI is said to be an economic project envisioned by the Chinese government, it has often been regarded as a tool of foreign policy as Beijing has deployed it to establish and strengthen diplomatic ties with developing countries, thus reshaping the geopolitical order.

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    In the context of Africa, Angola has emerged as one of China’s main trading partners and much of the relationship between the two countries has centred around the use of Angola’s vast oil reserves to secure infrastructure financing. […] This paper aims to explore the relationship between China and Angola within the BRI framework, the merits and pitfalls of the ‘Angolan model’ of economic development, and proposes a reflection on the emerging role of China as a leading actor in the global political economy.


    A NATO E OS DESAFIOS ATÉ 2030*

    Manuel Poêjo Torres; Dr. Francisco Proença Garcia; Lt.Gen. António Fontes Ramos

    Revista R:I nº 67 – Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais. (Jan 2021).

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    (ENG) Abstract: This paper explores the current state of affairs within the Euro-Atlantic region, with particular emphasis in understanding the ongoing transformations of NATO and the effects of the Sino Russian meteoric rise to world powers status on the West. This paper aims to clarify the primary power shift mechanics and shed light upon the trend that disruptive emerging threats will follow in the next ten years. The dawn of the new decade hints towards several sectorial transformations of the political, economic and security dimensions. The accelerated technological innovations, regional economic crisis, rising authoritarian powers and world economic asymmetries, contribute today for the transformation of tomorrow’s world order. NATO, as the most enduring shield of western democracies, continue to face today an increasing challenge to adapt to rising threats.

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    Consequently, it is the first objective of this paper to uncover the essential factors conditioning the ongoing world geopolitical dynamics and its impact in the West and particularly in NATO. Secondly, it focuses on the multiple new emerging challenges to the Alliance, and how NATO should adapt in order to cope with the threats of the upcoming decade. The paper argues for a role shift of the Alliance towards an international actor with global ‘dual-track’ responsibility, i.e. to continue ensuring the defence of the Allied Members and deterrence of threats, but at the same time, serving as a democratic agent to promote and sponsor global stability. As a result, this work recommends for a more substantial relationship architecture between NATO and the E.U.

    (PRT) Abstract: Este texto está organizado em duas partes interdependentes. A primeira aborda os fatores-chave do condicionamento geopolítico prevalecente; a segunda parte centra-se nos desafios que se colocam à Aliança nesse contexto. Defende, em síntese, a necessidade de um reposicionamento global da nato para o século XXI numa ótica dual track, como forma de continuar a assegurar a dissuasão e defesa coletiva dos aliados mas, simultaneamente, aportar uma atitude de empenhamento político construtivo que a torne uma entidade geradora da estabilidade mundial. Recomenda uma nova sistematização das relações NATO-UE que pode passar pelo desenvolvimento de campanhas completamente integradas e caracteriza algumas das medidas necessárias perante os desafios securitários atuais.


    STATE SURVEILLANCE: HOW IS FACE-RECOGNITION TECHNOLOGY IMPACTING THE POLITICO-JURIDICAL LANDSCAPE?

    Manuel Poêjo Torres; Afonso de Freitas Dantas

    CyberLaw Journal by CIJIC. (Sep 2020).

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    Abstract: The shifting world order and new technological innovations are in the crux of the ongoing revolution on security affairs, reflecting a set of new emerging challenges. Thus, to navigate the political and juridical pitfalls of state surveillance, democracies are challenged in finding the correct security balance within Open Societies. This paper is centered on the challenges raised by modern State surveillance and explores the post-Snowden age, the lessons learned from mass state surveillance programmes, how government surveillance undermines the democratic core principal liberties, while highlighting important legal changes – mechanism of oversight – setting the change in this field of study. Face-recognition technologies serve dually as an enabler of security and as a political disruptor of Open Societies.

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    Several examples are observed to illustrate the governments and industry relationships, as well as, the potential pitfalls of ‘face surveillance’ and ‘black-technologies’. Given the previous considerations, the Portuguese case is examined given particular attention to its upstanding ranking in the Global Peace Index, and the ongoing transformations to its national legal framework.

    CHINA’s ECONOMIC PRESENCE IN MOZAMBIQUE

    Dr. Francisco Proença Garcia

    Revista de Relações Internacionais nº3. (Sep 2020).

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    In International Politics, it is debated whether national and supranational development planning is regaining validity against the myth of the self-regulated market. Faced with the return of the state-centric approach, we place four geo-political scenarios: 1) corporate neoliberal globalization, where planning rhetoric remains weak and fragmented; 2) conservative nationalist anti-globalization, opposed to any state regulation of the market; 3) the Eurasian commitment to strengthen state regulatory capacities, and 4) a South-South geopolitics, still subordinate, with mixed experiences between development planning, market re-forms and incipient autonomous regional integration. We analyze whether the so-called Asian Consensus, particularly Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), influences ALYC through national-regional-global interconnectivity projects.

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    Like the planning experience of COSIPLAN, whose executive work was linked to UNASUR, is present in the CELAC-CHINA Forum and whether this expands margins of governance for autonomous regional integration. Transversally are documented: professional geopolitics, governmental and private related to regional interconnectivity; practical geopolitics that intervenes in the political operation of regional actions for “development”, and popular geopolitics, which implies the acceptance or resistance of the affected or benefited population in the face of development planning.

    In the Press

    PRESSÕES AUTOCRÁTICAS EXTERNAS NO MUNDO ACADÉMICO OCIDENTAL (PRT)

    Constança de Matos. Observador. (Apr 2021).

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    Em meados de 2017, Tim Pringle, o então editor do China Quarterly, recebeu um pedido desconcertante. A Cambridge University Press, entidade que gere o jornal académico em questão, acabara de lhe comunicar que, a pedido das autoridades chinesas, iriam proceder à remoção de mais de 300 artigos do seu periódico. O website da editora seria encerrado dentro de território Chinês se não o fizessem. Em causa estava a referência explícita a questões como o massacre da Praça Tiananmen, o Tibete, Xinjiang, Hong Kong e a Revolução Cultural.

    UE E CHINA: ENTRE A ECONOMIA E OS VALORES (PRT)

    Luís Leal de Faria. Observador. (Mar 2021).

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    A China tem a maior população do mundo, a segunda maior economia e um potencial de crescimento significativo, sendo um parceiro indispensável numa retoma económica da UE no contexto da actual crise pandémica. No entanto, o aprofundar das relações com a China comporta inúmeros riscos, tais como os ataques cibernéticos, as campanhas de desinformação online, os subsídios estatais que distorcem a concorrência internacional, ou mesmo as transferências forçadas de tecnologia.

    INTERFERÊNCIA AUTOCRÁTICA EXTERNA NO MUNDO ACADÉMICO OCIDENTAL: UM OLHAR MAIS PROFUNDO AO CASO DO REINO UNIDO (PRT)

    Constança de Matos. Nova Cidadania nº72. (Dec 2020).

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    Ao longo da última década, temos vindo a testemunhar um número crescente de agressões externas às instituições democráticas que sustentam o mundo ocidental. As sucessivas ingerências no mundo académico não são exceção. Por isso, o objetivo deste artigo é alertar para os riscos e implicações associadas à crescente exposição das universidades ocidentais a interferências externas de origem autocrática, determinar o contexto que permitiu a expansão deste fenómeno nos últimos anos através do caso do Reino Unido e, em última instância, fornecer um conjunto de recomendações sobre a estratégia que deverá ser adotada de modo a impedir que situações em que a liberdade académica é posta em causa ocorram no futuro.

    O DEBATE 5G: AS IMPLICAÇÕES GEOPOLÍTICAS E SECURITÁRIAS NA EUROPA (PRT)

    Corina Lozovan. Nova Cidadania nº 72. (Dec 2020).

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    A rede 5G é a última geração de tecnologia sem fios que será mais um avanço no âmbito da revolução digital. No pensamento de Carl von Clausewitz, poder-se-ia dizer que a discussão sobre a rede 5G representa a continuação de uma grande competição de poder por outros meios i , numa era de corrida global pela supremacia tecnológica na terra e, sub-repticiamente, também no espaço. As notícias de hoje tornaram o debate 5G num tema omnipresente, mas ainda assim, o seu alcance e poder transformacional é subestimado. Esta próxima geração de conectividade sem fios terá um impacto a longo prazo nas nossas vidas, revolucionando todas as esferas da economia, política e segurança. A odisseia da ficção científica que tem sido descrita na literatura tornou-se uma realidade, com benefícios, mas ao mesmo tempo, com riscos acrescidos e ameaças.

    MOLDÁVIA, UM PAÍS ESQUECIDO (PRT)

    Corina Lozovan. Público. (2020).

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    A vitória de Maia Sandu nas recentes eleições presidenciais é também um triunfo para a democracia no país, que ainda está em fase de consolidação. Contudo, o caminho para reformas estruturais profundas será complicado, já que ela necessita ter a maioria no Parlamento, pejado de rinocerontes que sucumbiram à doença da corrupção e do conformismo.

    A ASCENSÃO DA CHINA E A SALVAGUARDA DO MUNDO LIVRE (PRT)

    Luís Leal de Faria. Observador. (Nov 2020).

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    As democracias devem permanecer abertas, mesmo a regimes autoritários, desde que limites pré-definidos sejam respeitados. Porém, tem faltado liderança e coordenação na definição destes limites.